Where The Jobs Are ... And Not

Job trends through 2018 favor those trained in health care and computer system management. What if you don’t have the aptitude or desire to enter those fields?

Based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ projected employment changes for 2008-2018, you might want to rethink your career and job goals – regardless of the online and TV ads encouraging you to go back to school for a degree in XYZ because “money is available from the federal government.”

Growth occupations include those in management, scientific and technical consulting; offices of physicians; computer systems design and related services; general merchandise stores; employment services; local government (excluding education and hospitals); home health care services; services for the elderly and those with disabilities; nursing care facilities; and full-service restaurants.

Decline occupations include those in department stores; semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing; postal service; motor vehicle parts manufacturing; printing and related support activities; cut- and-sew apparel manufacturing; newspaper publishing; support work for mining; wired telecommunications carriers; and gasoline stations.

“Registered nurses’ projected growth rate of 22 percent (about 582,000 jobs) is well above the 10 percent average for all occupations,’’ the iHireJobNetwork reports. “Employment growth for registered nurses will be driven by the medical needs of an aging population. In addition, registered nurses are expected to provide more primary care as a low-cost alternative to physician-provided care. Job opportunities should be excellent.”

The “aging population” is the Baby Boomers, folks born between 1946 and 1964, whose generational size has reshaped U.S. priorities for decades and will continue to do so into the future (Disclosure: I’m an aging Boomer!). Simply put, greater numbers of Boomers with health issues affecting their daily activities need more health care, so nursing will be in demand.

“The number of home health aides and personal and home care aides is projected to grow by 836,700 over the over the 2008–18 period,’’ iHireJobNetwork reports. "The 48 percent projected growth rate of home health aides and personal and home care aides are also much faster than average. This growth, together with the need to replace workers who leave the occupation permanently, should result in excellent job prospects.” (Home health aides and personal and home care aides comprise two occupations tabulated separately by the BLS.)

Overall, projections by the BLS show an aging and more racially and ethnically diverse labor force, and employment growth in service-providing industries. More than half of the new jobs will be in professional and related occupations and service occupations. In addition, occupations where a post secondary degree or award is usually required are expected to account for one-third of total job openings during the 10-year projection period.

Job openings from replacement needs – those which occur when workers who retire or otherwise leave their occupations need to be replaced – are projected to be more than double the number of openings because of economic growth, according to the BLS.

The projections for continued declines in manufacturing and newspaper publishing come as no surprise for those who watch industry trends.


Manufacturing (reduced inventories and outsourced work for cheaper overseas labor) and newspaper publishing (Internet competition coupled with advertising declines) aren’t likely to see projected growth rates for jobs anytime soon. Both have significantly cut jobs during the Great Recession and probably will continue to shed bodies indefinitely, with few exceptions.

The U.S. Postal Service making the BLS decline list is a big no-brainer. How many of us pay our bills online, and how many send e-mails instead of hand-written letters to friends and family? To save money, the postal service is looking to end Saturday delivery. The check may be in the mail, but there’s no projected job growth in that line of work.

Gasoline stations? I doubt anybody makes it these days just selling gas. You need a convenience store or some other compatible use (service and repairs?) to keep a roof over your head and the bills paid. My local gas guy, in business for 30+ years, told his son to find another occupation because he planned to sell and retire. “There’s no money in it,’’ my guy told me.

Make no mistake about it, the economic meltdown that began in December 2007 jolted industries, wiped out some jobs completely and greatly curtailed long-term growth prospects for other types of business because of the ripple effect.

Simply put, some jobs which existed before ’07 are never coming back or are greatly reduced because the demand has declined with changes in consumer priorities, in some cases radically altered.

What does this all mean in 2010? Choose carefully when you pursue a new job or a career degree in XYZ – you want something with recession resistance, or you might find yourself blogging about the good old days, again.

As for me, I practice what I preach at writenowworks.com.