Electric Cars May Move Us

With the continuing oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, many may wonder if we can wean ourselves off of fossil fuel. Part of the solution obviously resides in green technology and certainly electric vehicles are driving interest as a probable alternative to gasoline powered cars.

Three companies – General Motors, Nissan and Toyota – are gaining traction in the marketplace. GM’s Chevrolet Volt is able to travel up to 40 miles on a single battery charge through a conventional household outlet. This automobile is scheduled for sale to consumers later this year. Nissan is touting a car called the Leaf (top) that has a projected range of up to 100 miles. And Toyota has a plug-in version of the Prius which is nearing public announcement.

These cars may not even require gasoline and can represent a dramatic cutback in exhaust emissions; it's the kind of automotive breakthrough that clean energy advocates have been trying to reach for decades.

The timing couldn’t be better since manufacturers have powerful advocates in government and industry. For instance, the Obama administration is offering generous subsidies to manufacturers which produce electric vehicles and consumers who purchase them. As a result, many automakers are gearing up for electric vehicle production, and venture capitalists are willing to invest in new designs.

Still, the big question is whether consumers will embrace electric vehicles in large enough numbers to make the whole dynamic work.

Gasoline is now less than $3.00 per gallon in most areas of the country. Initial electric-powered cars will cost much more than conventional technology vehicles, even with government subsidies. Current hybrids average about 30 mpg, but until gasoline prices increase significantly more, electric cars may have to wait for consumer attitudes to catch up.

Since electric cars run purely on electrical power, mile for mile these cars will operate at significantly lower costs, given current kilowatt power rates.

GM has designed the Volt (right) with a 40-mile range on a single charge with the capability to be recharged from a 120-volt household outlet. Once the battery runs low, a gasoline- powered motor engages and charges a generator which can result in another 300 miles of driving distance.

The electric Toyota Prius (left) has a range of about 10 to 15 miles and in a similar manner to the Volt, and the Prius can produce about 300 miles. But the Nissan Leaf is slated to be a “pure electric” car able to travel about 100 miles on a single charge. On the downside, the Leaf does not have a secondary power source and that may result in what the industry calls “range anxiety.”

The potential gasoline savings for the new technology is enormous. Currently, the Toyota Prius Hybrid gets about 50 mpg. On the other hand, GM’s Volt is projected to get about 230 mpg, and the Leaf would result in an equivalent 300 mpg. This is no match for conventional gasoline cars.

Electric vehicles vs. conventional cars

One example of a high-end electric vehicle is the Tesla Roadster. It consumes about 110 watt-hours per kilometer and is able to travel about 244 miles on a single charge. The full charge takes about 3.5 hours. Analysts estimate the Roadster ranges from 135 to 400 mpg, depending on how the equivalency between gasoline and electricity is computed. As a sidebar, it should be noted that the Telsa Roadster accelerates to 60 mph in 3.9 seconds; almost instant torque is available with electric cars.

GM Volt Product Manager Tony Posawatz (right) says 100 miles of battery-powered travel will require about $2.75 worth of electricity. This means up to 3 cents per mile based on average electricity rates of about 11 cents per kilowatt hour. If drivers charge their Volt overnight, when off-peak electricity rates are lower, the cost could be as little as 1 cent per mile. Posawatz says at these rates the annual cost-savings on fuel could easily be more than $1,000 for typical driving.

There are potential problems on the horizon with electric vehicles because they require entirely new sets of hardware and software.

Lithium-ion batteries have been used in cell phones and computers for years. However, there is still uncertainty surrounding scale-up and performance requirements. There also are the issues of disposal and repair. Electric car technology will require new training and infrastructure.

The initial cost of electric vehicles also is high, especially for early adapters. Most analysts predict that, at $3.00 per gallon, it takes nearly 15 years to amortize the initial investment. That’s why some manufacturers are willing to absorb some of this cost. Even with government rebates and incentives, many consumers may be reluctant to take the early risks associated with a product without a proven track record and resale history.

Still, the possible emergence of electric vehicles as a dominant product may be just one silver lining in the gulf oil crisis. There are obvious risks associated with fossil fuel drilling. Many lives are at risk and careers are in jeopardy as a result – just some of the lessons learned while BP and the U.S. government continue to grapple with the spreading spill from the exploded rig.

This environmental calamity, with its impact for years to come, may serve to put our lifestyle in perspective … how overly dependent we still are on fossil fuels. Cheaper and greener electric car technology may be the answer for consumers, now and in the future.

This post is from TechMan, WMB co-author who blogs about trends, issues and ideas affecting business, industry, technology and consumers.