IBM: Tech May Change Us

While predicting the future is a risky business, many technological advances envisioned long ago are becoming today’s realities.

IBM, in a document called “Next Five in Five,” identifies technology innovations that could change the way people work, live, and play.

The innovations chosen for the recently released fifth annual list are based on two criteria:

Major trends emerging in society and the marketplace; tech under development at IBM laboratories, and technologies that have the potential to make innovations possible.

Here’s what IBM’s Next Five in Five sees on the horizon.

Better Batteries and Power Use

Advances in transistor and battery technology will allow electronic devices to last about 10 times longer than today. In some cases, it might be possible to eliminate batteries.

IBM is developing batteries that use the air to react with energy-dense metal. If perfected, the result is a battery that is lightweight, powerful and rechargeable.

Another possibility, according to IBM, is the possibility of battery-free electronic devices capable of being charged using a technique called energy scavenging.

In this process, simple physical movement is used to charge the device. To accomplish this, the amount of energy required by each transistor is reduced.

To this end, IBM is developing III-V semiconducting nanowires to stop “leaking” in the transistor’s off-state.

Display in 3D

As 3D and halographic cameras get more sophisticated and miniaturized, it’s becoming possible for people to interact with other people and with data in entirely new ways.

This is being enabled, in part, through the use of “telepresence.’’

The continuing explosion in the number of Internet-connected devices will possibly jam networks. In five years, network providers will develop new technologies to deliver 3D and other services.

Networked Sensors

Sensors will be in a vast array of devices. These sensors will be continually interrogating the environment.

It will be possible to wirelessly collect this data and analyze the environment in real time and in ways not currently possible.

Smart Commuting

Commuters will be able to quickly access personalized recommendations to help them get them where they want to go in the fastest time possible, according to IBM.

Transportation agencies and city planners will be able to proactively design, manage and optimize transportation systems capable of better handling ever-increasing traffic flow.

This new capability will be based on more than just monitoring data collected from sensors in vehicles, roads, toll booths, bridges and intersections, and from traffic reports and weather conditions.

IBM is developing new mathematical models and predictive analytic technologies.

They will serve to analyze all possible scenarios that can affect commuters and enable the development of adaptive traffic systems.

Such systems will teach traveler patterns and behaviors, and provide them with greatly improved real time safety and route information.

Waste Heat Management

Technological innovations will enable waste heat, currently dumped by computers into the atmosphere, to serve useful purposes.

To accomplish this, IBM is developing a novel network of microfluidic capillaries that attaches directly to each processor. The capillaries bring water to within microns of a chip.

By having water flow close to a chip, heat is efficiently removed. This ensures the processor operating temperature remains below the allowed minimum.

The removed heat can consequently be used to heat a building. This technology also serves to reduce the carbon footprint of the computer.

What We See

WMB believes each of these technologies has enormous potential, and we’re anxious to see how each evolves into direct benefits or indirect advances.

Doubts persist about predictions? Consider the longevity of Moore’s Law, first put forth by Gordon Moore in 1965.

Moore, co-founder of Intel, noted the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented.

He predicted this trend would continue indefinitely.

Though the pace has slowed a bit, data density continues to double about every 18 months – the current definition of Moore's Law.

Time will tell on IBM’s Next Five in Five.

 TechMan