ChinaWatch: Sources of Power

Welcome to ChinaWatch, WMB’s digest of news from the country with the world’s second largest economy and our chief rival to global dominance. Our aim is to keep you informed.


IPhones At Risk?

The key to hundreds of modern technologies, from iPhones to smart-bombs, lies in little-known rare earth metals, 95 percent of which are mined by China (picture below shows mining camp).

The nation's decision to slash exports has left the West scrabbling for alternative supplies.

Some 17 rare earth metals are the magic ingredient in almost everything that makes modern life possible.


They may have exotic-sounding names such as terbium, europium, dysprosium and lutetium, but they also have decidedly everyday applications; from BlackBerrys and iPhones to catalytic converters and low-energy light bulbs.

Known in China as "industrial vitamins," rare earths are an essential component in green technologies such as electric cars, solar panels and wind-turbines.

Rare earths are not only essential for civilian life; the world's hi-tech armies also need rare earths for a host of applications from toughening tank armor to guiding smart-bombs and powering night-vision goggles.

Given their global application, it may come as a surprise to know that 95 percent of world rare earths production is controlled by a single country – China.

Last year, China's ministry of commerce announced drastic cuts in the amount of rare earths it would make available for export.

Quotas were cut by more than 70 percent for the second half of 2010 to only 8,000 tons, compared with 29,000 tons for the same period the previous year, at a time when global demand for rare earth elements was picking up fast.

Analysts say quotas are expected to shrink again, this year by 11 percent. Rare earths demand has tripled in the past decade to an estimated 136,000 tons this year. By 2014, some analysts are now predicting a 20,000-ton shortfall in key metals.

More Than Air

Despite surpassing U.S. installed wind capacity in 2010, one third of China’s installed wind capacity is not connected to the grid.



China’s National Energy Administration claims it will prioritize connectivity over renewables growth in its upcoming five-year plan.

The NEA has made public its focus on strategic wind energy growth through more hands-on energy policy and management on the national level.

The key areas of connectivity, project approval, and balancing present vs. new investors will take center stage over the next five years of Chinese wind development, according to the NEA.

Although this is a China-specific renewables issue, the world at large will be severely affected by the decision and policy that takes place over the next five years regarding China’s cleantech industry.

In 2009, the World Resources Institute found that 70% of all of China’s energy came from coal, which is a huge contributor to climate change.

When the Kyoto Protocol was signed and ratified in China in 2002, the country was classified as "developing" and it did not have to adhere to the greenhouse gas reduction criteria.

Since China has overtaken America in emissions in recent years and is projected to grow enormously over the next five years, its energy mix of greenhouse gas contributors and renewables is crucial to the world’s development.

China has promised a 40-45 percent reduction in energy intensity by 2020, based on 2005 levels.

Yet there is strong criticism over whether this is attainable given China’s growth rates and continued dependence on coal.

ChinaWatch

Riding Energy’s Next Wave

New worldwide companies are being formed in a quest to learn how to capture the power of oceans and seas.

Wave power is the transport of energy by ocean surface waves, and the capture of that energy to do useful work – for example, for electricity generation, water desalination, or the pumping of water into reservoirs, according to Wikipedia.

The world’s first commercial wave energy farm was launched in 2008 three miles off the north coast of Portugal. Agucadoura Wave Park consists of three devises which can each produce 750 kilowatt hours of power. While this state-of-the-art wave farm may be considered a novelty for now, we at WMB don’t think that will be the case for long.

Waves are the result of wind blowing over the surface of the ocean. In many areas of the world, the wind blows with consistency and enough force to provide continuous waves. There is considerable energy in ocean waves. In turn, wave power devices extract energy directly from the surface motion of ocean waves or from pressure fluctuations below the surface.

About 70 percent of the earth is covered with water, and this water is the largest single repository of solar energy. One only need watch waves crashing into a rocky shore to appreciate the potential energy and force that is produced.

If just 2 percent of the ocean’s energy were converted to electricity, it would meet the entire world's power needs, according to the Northwest National Marine Renewable Energy Center in Washington state.

Even better, waves are predictable unlike solar power; this makes grid requirement more practical. Since greater numbers of people are living within 50 miles of oceans, power would not need to be transported long distances.

Wave energy has lagged solar and wind energy development mainly because of technical reasons. But now many of these problems have been solved. Oceans can be unforgiving, hostile and difficult to control, and salt water is corrosive. Creating devices that can withstand these conditions has been a challenge for years.

Most government money and private and industrial development were instead funneled to solar and wind power development. Big oil and gas companies have in recent years devised technologies adaptable to deeper and rougher waters. Even the BP oil disaster has taught engineers how to better understand deep water currents and waves.

Wave energy, more so than tidal energy, offers readily accessible ocean power. Tidal energy uses the currents in the sea, and wave energy draws power from the rise and fall of waves on the surface.

The Electric Power Research Institute, with offices and laboratories in California, North Carolina and Tennessee, conservatively estimates wave energy could provide about 6 percent of America’s electric needs, while tidal power could produce another 3 percent. To put this into perspective, hydroelectric power currently produces 6 percent of our power.

Wave devices come in a variety of designs, but all work to transform energy from the rolling motion of waves of water to electricity. Usually the aquatic motion is converted into mechanical energy that runs a turbine or generator.

Machines used in Portugal were designed by Pelamis Wave Power Co. of Scotland. Worldwide, there about 100 competing designs for wave and tidal converters. But as this industry matures, it will be necessary to weed out designs that are either too costly or inefficient.

Other designs include Aquamarine Power's Oyster and perhaps the most unusual wave energy converter, the Anaconda.
Developed by Great Britain’s Checkmate Seaenergy for use in deeper waters about 5 miles from shore, the Anaconda is a long sealed tube filled with water. It is attached to the seabed and pointed at incoming waves.

As each wave rolls over the tube, it creates and pushes a growing bulge within the length of the tube and builds pressure that operates a turbine at the other end. Such a devise may be 23 feet in diameter and 600 feet in length, and capable of generating 1 MW of power. The devise is constructed of a type of rubber and can survive years of use in seawater.

Costs for marine power are high but may drop rapidly as capacity and demand grow. Manufacturers predict this technology will produce power at 5 cents to 10 cents per kilowatt hour. But marine energy will need government support in the early stages, just like solar and wind-turbine. Wave energy is currently eligible for a 1.1 cent per kwh tax credit.

Pelamis officials say, “No new energy is competitive right out of the box,’’ but they claim that each doubling of capacity could bring down costs by 15 to 20 percent.

At WMB, we think government incentives could encourage private investors to back these new marine technologies because they help ensure the likelihood of return on investment.

K.P. Yue, a professor of ocean engineering at MIT, says, “It’s not ready for prime time – it needs about five to 10 years of development. But it could have a huge impact in 20 years.”

This post is by TechMan, WMB co-author who blogs about trends, issues and ideas affecting business, industry, technology and consumers.