Where The Jobs Are ... And Not

Job trends through 2018 favor those trained in health care and computer system management. What if you don’t have the aptitude or desire to enter those fields?

Based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ projected employment changes for 2008-2018, you might want to rethink your career and job goals – regardless of the online and TV ads encouraging you to go back to school for a degree in XYZ because “money is available from the federal government.”

Growth occupations include those in management, scientific and technical consulting; offices of physicians; computer systems design and related services; general merchandise stores; employment services; local government (excluding education and hospitals); home health care services; services for the elderly and those with disabilities; nursing care facilities; and full-service restaurants.

Decline occupations include those in department stores; semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing; postal service; motor vehicle parts manufacturing; printing and related support activities; cut- and-sew apparel manufacturing; newspaper publishing; support work for mining; wired telecommunications carriers; and gasoline stations.

“Registered nurses’ projected growth rate of 22 percent (about 582,000 jobs) is well above the 10 percent average for all occupations,’’ the iHireJobNetwork reports. “Employment growth for registered nurses will be driven by the medical needs of an aging population. In addition, registered nurses are expected to provide more primary care as a low-cost alternative to physician-provided care. Job opportunities should be excellent.”

The “aging population” is the Baby Boomers, folks born between 1946 and 1964, whose generational size has reshaped U.S. priorities for decades and will continue to do so into the future (Disclosure: I’m an aging Boomer!). Simply put, greater numbers of Boomers with health issues affecting their daily activities need more health care, so nursing will be in demand.

“The number of home health aides and personal and home care aides is projected to grow by 836,700 over the over the 2008–18 period,’’ iHireJobNetwork reports. "The 48 percent projected growth rate of home health aides and personal and home care aides are also much faster than average. This growth, together with the need to replace workers who leave the occupation permanently, should result in excellent job prospects.” (Home health aides and personal and home care aides comprise two occupations tabulated separately by the BLS.)

Overall, projections by the BLS show an aging and more racially and ethnically diverse labor force, and employment growth in service-providing industries. More than half of the new jobs will be in professional and related occupations and service occupations. In addition, occupations where a post secondary degree or award is usually required are expected to account for one-third of total job openings during the 10-year projection period.

Job openings from replacement needs – those which occur when workers who retire or otherwise leave their occupations need to be replaced – are projected to be more than double the number of openings because of economic growth, according to the BLS.

The projections for continued declines in manufacturing and newspaper publishing come as no surprise for those who watch industry trends.


Manufacturing (reduced inventories and outsourced work for cheaper overseas labor) and newspaper publishing (Internet competition coupled with advertising declines) aren’t likely to see projected growth rates for jobs anytime soon. Both have significantly cut jobs during the Great Recession and probably will continue to shed bodies indefinitely, with few exceptions.

The U.S. Postal Service making the BLS decline list is a big no-brainer. How many of us pay our bills online, and how many send e-mails instead of hand-written letters to friends and family? To save money, the postal service is looking to end Saturday delivery. The check may be in the mail, but there’s no projected job growth in that line of work.

Gasoline stations? I doubt anybody makes it these days just selling gas. You need a convenience store or some other compatible use (service and repairs?) to keep a roof over your head and the bills paid. My local gas guy, in business for 30+ years, told his son to find another occupation because he planned to sell and retire. “There’s no money in it,’’ my guy told me.

Make no mistake about it, the economic meltdown that began in December 2007 jolted industries, wiped out some jobs completely and greatly curtailed long-term growth prospects for other types of business because of the ripple effect.

Simply put, some jobs which existed before ’07 are never coming back or are greatly reduced because the demand has declined with changes in consumer priorities, in some cases radically altered.

What does this all mean in 2010? Choose carefully when you pursue a new job or a career degree in XYZ – you want something with recession resistance, or you might find yourself blogging about the good old days, again.

As for me, I practice what I preach at writenowworks.com.

Numbers Confound Job Picture

It's always about numbers these days, especially when anyone points to key figures involving unemployment levels and job creation. At issue is the wide variety in both categories, depending on what source is cited.

The job openings rate in December 2009 was 1.9 percent, little changed from November 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported. That means there are roughly 2.5 million open jobs, with the U.S. unemployment rate standing at 9.7 percent in January 2010, per the government's report. It's not pretty by any definition.

Job openings increased in state and local governments across the country, while openings decreased in the Midwest. The industries with the highest percentage of openings are education and health services, at 2.7 percent; that's still down from 3.5 percent in December 2008.

Essentially, if a given company in America has 98 employees on its payroll, it's looking to hire two, according to a report at mediabistro.com by Rachel Kaufman of MediaJobsDaily. That's not very encouraging if you're among the 14.8 million Americans unemployed, as of the bureau's January 2010 figures.


Sergey Novoselov, blogging about the Bureau of Labor Statistics report at resumark.com, offers a different analysis of the numbers. In reality, unemployment reached an all-time high of 18 percent, which is the official number reported by the bureau, Novoselov says. There are a few different categories (sets of data) published on a regular basis and the main focus is usually on the “official” U3 unemployment rate (currently 9.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, according to Novoselov.

U3 is the total number of unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force. U4 is the next category that includes unemployed workers plus discouraged workers (someone who’s available to work but has stopped actively seeking work). U5 unemployment includes all from the previous category (U4), plus marginally attached workers (those able and willing to work but not actively seeking).

U6 is the most realistic figure involving today’s job market, Novoselov says. In addition to those unemployed from the previous categories, it also includes workers forced to work part time because they are not able to find full-time jobs.

The U6 unemployment number is 18 percent (16.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted) -- the highest number on record, according to the bureau.


Regardless of which sets of job numbers are used, there seems to be general agreement this recession is the deepest and longest downturn since the Great Depression.

There also is an emerging viewpoint from many sources that the impact on our consumer-based society may extend years, with some industries -- print media, for example -- never fully recovering because advertisers have migrated to other sources such as the Web. That's the downside.

Moving forward, the No. 1 priority for our leaders should be speeding recovery, so we can turn this negative gridlock into positive action for the greatest number of Americans.

As for me, I practice what I preach at writenowworks.com.